Politics

The Future: Return to "normal"?

Speculation is that Trump is nearing the meeting of his maker, and while I do not believe it (heroic medical interventions are going to happen), I am not sure it will go like both sides anticipate.

Geoff Anderson

30 Aug 2025 — 6 min read

I am seeing people speculating on Substack and Bluesky about Trump being near death, and the apparent lack of activities on his calendar. And then there was the cabinet meeting earlier this week where the cabinet did their best Death of Stalin impersonation.

Look, Trump is an old man, 79 years old, who has an abysmal diet mainly of junk food, and his only exercise is waddling from the golf cart to swing a club and back to the golf cart. Sure, he has the bruising on his hand, and the dubious CVI (Chronic Venous Insufficiency) diagnosis, a serious condition that doesn't "get better."

Still, the day will come when Trump snarfs his last hamberder.

And I will not shed a tear, crocodile or otherwise at his demise.

That said, I am hearing a lot of insanity from the left and the right both about the eventualities.

First, the left

There seems to be this belief that the MAGA movement dies with Trump. That it is purely a cult of personality, and while prior to 2024's election, I might have agreed, I no longer believe this to be the case.

The argument is usually around JD Vance's lack of "Rizz"[1] and that he is widely hated. Just today, I saw a video of his visit to Wisconsin being shared widely both on Substack and Bluesky about his motorcade failing to elude the protestors.

And sure, he is a terrible human being, awkward and unable to order donuts like a human.

Prior to the election, that might have made a difference, but I am no longer sure that it matters. The 2024 election solidified the MAGA base around Trump, but also around their hatred of the out-groups. My thinking on this evolved with the RNC, and the crowds waving signs that said "Mass Deportations NOW!"

It was at that moment I realized that it wasn't just about Trump, or even immigration, but instead the classic in-group/out-group dynamic, where the MAGA base was all in on the hatred.

And sure, when told about the particulars, the general population hates the Heritage Foundation's "Project 2025." Still, that plan is about 80% implemented at the moment, and with it a cadre of shock troops in the government agencies. They are going to close ranks and support VP Vance in the aftermath of Trump passing.

This will harden the support, and likely soften some of the things that aggravate the general population with Trump's activities. He could dial back the immigration enforcement by 20%, the tariff's by 30%, and be seen as a hero by both MAGA and the independents.

No, that is a very powerful message and it will help Vance coalesce support, even grudgingly, from the MAGA sphere.

Then 2028 becomes a cakewalk for Vance.

Fuck me running.

From the right

I've been reading a lot of Never Trump rhetoric, and listening to podcasts, and they seem to be living in a fantasy world.

In short, they are positive that there is a vast pool of Republicans in the administration, and in Congress that will quickly snap back, and get back to a "sane" conservatism.

That makes me want to laugh. That would mean that the MAGA hordes wouldn't continue to keep the pressure on them to maintain their ideological alignment to Trumpism. I just do not see that happening.

They would have to grow spines, and risk their cushy offices to primaries?

No, I think that Republicans are 100%, full-on MAGA, and there is almost no wriggle room.

Lately, I have heard some argue that they think the damage Trump has wrought on agencies like DHS, DoJ, FBI, the intelligence community, HHS/CDC/FDA and the like make it a good opportunity for them to refashion the agencies into a conservative wet dream, things they've been wanking to since, well FDR.

Yeah, not gonna happen. The staffing and personnel changes that were part of the Project 2025 aegis are going to be hard to root out, and will not be easy for a possible future Democratic administration to clear out. The damage is deep, and it might not be repairable.

One thing that a lot of the Democrats and left leaning people are salivating over is undoing the MAGA-fication of government. That is a noble goal, but a short that JVL did with former Metro DC police officer Michael Fanone who had talked to some of the troops who are currently patrolling in DC dispels the myth that the military and federal law enforcement are reluctant at best to be deployed domestically. In fact, they seem to revel in their policing duties.[2]

That is fucking terrifying, and the damage in the officer corps of the military being done by Hegseth is removing an old guard who were committed to defending the constitution

No, I am thinking that there isn't any going back to where we were (and do we really want to? It wasn't great for everybody.)

Instead, I agree with JVL in his latest Triad (sorry, paywalled). This is from a Science Fiction novel where a catastrophe occurred on a colony on Jupiter's moon Ganymede:

It’s the basic obstacle of artificial ecosystems. In a normal evolutionary environment, there’s enough diversity to cushion the system when something catastrophic happens. That’s nature. Catastrophic things happen all the time. But nothing we can build has the depth. One thing goes wrong, and there’s only a few compensatory pathways that can step in. They get overstressed. Fall out of balance. When the next one fails, there are even fewer paths, and then they’re more stressed. It’s a simple complex system. That’s the technical name for it. Because it’s simple, it’s prone to cascades, and because it’s complex, you can’t predict what’s going to fail. Or how. It’s computationally impossible. . . .

Ganymede’s dead. . . . The tunnels will probably survive, but the environmental and social structures are already broken. Even if we could somehow get the environmental systems back in place—and really, we can’t without a lot of work—how many people are going to stay here now? How many would be going to jail? Something’s going to fill the niche, but it won’t be what was here before. . . .

It’s all going to fall apart. The relief effort’s going to make the fall a little more graceful, maybe. But it’s too late. [3]

“Liberal democracy” is an artificial ecosystem, a simple-complex system that does not arise from an evolutionary environment. Liberal democracy is created and imposed; it must be maintained through active tending.

You probably see where I’m going with this: Is it already too late?

It feels like it is too late.

My real beef

This is what really grinds my gears. The Never Trumpers seem to want to coopt the Democratic party to rebuild their ideal small-c conservative order. That is why they have such an affinity for bland centrists like Abigail Spanberger, Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro, and so help me, they keep bringing Gretchen Whitmer in, even though she thoroughly tongue-bathed Trump's wrinkled nut-sack.

They cringe when people like AOC and Bernie fill auditoriums, when Gavin C. Newsom effectively trolls the MAGA ecosystem, and when Zohran Mamdani winds the Democratic primary in NYC, they feel they need to pivot to fucking Andrew motherfucking Cuomo.

Christ on a crouton, you are all part of how we got here, and sure, you're doing penance, but for fuck's sake, sit the fuck down.